American Kahani: Prospect Theory — India’s Options After Pahalgam Massacre are Limited Even If Asymmetry of Power Puts Pakistan at Disadvantage

The horrific terror attack that claimed 26 lives a week ago in Pahalgam was another reminder that the Kashmir issue remains the primary issue in South Asia’s (and the world’s) oldest continuous conflict. India has been the victim of many terrorist incidents over the past three decades, the most notable of which was the Mumbai attacks of November 2008. Most of these attacks, especially those in Kashmir, have been with Pakistani complicity if not outright organization. The loud declarations in some quarters that there is no proof of Pakistani complicity is ridiculous since all evidence points to that state. Indian government has nothing to gain at this point from allowing (or for conspiracy theorists organizing) such an attack. Pakistani motivations for the attack can be attributed to the recent reduced tensions in the Indo-Pak conflict giving India a very prominent advantage — thanks to domestic political turmoil in Pakistan, and finally but most significantly, the lack of trust that Pakistanis have in their army. [continue reading]